Issue #26/51, November 5 - 18, 1998  

Russia's Military Chances

Who do I like in Russia's next war? It's not as easy a call as you'd think. Penalties and poor defense marked her last miserable performance in Chechnya, but despite the uncertain coaching situation, Russia, on paper anyway, still has the best offense in Eurasia. Here's how I'd handicap Russia's chances in hostilities with some of her neighbors.

China... 5-2.....Russia
O/U 79 million casualties
Sheer numerical strength should outweigh Russia's technological advantage in this clash of Asian Conference titans. Porous Russian borders will allow Chinese troops to get into the secondary in infantry play.

Russia...4-1...Kazakhstan
O/U 31 million casualties
Russia will be looking at an early blowout against this nuclear power and will overlook ex-teammates on the Kazakh side who will be able to read Russian play calling. High attrition rate in nuclear exchanges will be followed by conditional Kazakh surrender with maintenance of sovereignty and convertible national currency.

Russia...17-1...Ukraine
O/U 5 casualties
Ukraine surrenders unconditionally after early border skirmish. Lack of electricity in nuclear areas prevents Ukrainian commanders from finding launch switch on time. Entire Black Sea fleet sinks after being struck by a fish.

Russia...E...Estonia
O/U 3.3 million casualties
Numerical superiority canceled out by likelihood that Russian forces will get lost and attack Baltic Sea by mistake. Last-second alliance with Finland and secession of Karelian province could be decisive factors. Look for ski troops to have a big game.

Note: lines based on interviews with Jane's Defense Weekly and "The Military Balance 1996/7" by the International Institute for Strategic Studies