Issue #01/56, January 14 - 27, 1999  

By Ivan Yefimov

It would seem that the standoff between Belarus's democratic forces and President Lukashenko ought to play right into the hands of the local communists: while the two rams are busy battering their horns together, the "reds" have a chance to proclaim themselves the one true force remaining sensibly and constructively above the fray. But the trick didn't work: the long-suffering Belarussian electorate did not pay any mind the local communists' attempts to become the "third force" capable of solving the republic's substantial economic problems.

One of the leaders of the Communist Party of Belarus, Ivan Karachun, put it quite bluntly to me: "At present it is difficult to talk of our becoming Lukashenko's successors. Even with the distressing economic situation in the country, the people have remained extremely passive. At the meetings held by miners from Soligorsk, workers from the major industrial enterprises presented demands that were exclusively economic in nature: increased salaries, more social benefits, and so on. There wasn't a word about the economic chaos being the result of turning away from a command economy. We barely managed to gather 200 people (all party members, incidentally) for the November 7 demonstration marking the anniversary of the October Revolution."

Renowned Belarussian writer Vasil Bykov, formerly Secretary of the Writer's Union of Belarus, a participant in the Second World War, a staunch defender of communist ideals, and now one of the spiritual leaders of the opposition, shares the opinion of the communists.

"It is no longer important to people which party a politician belongs to," he noted. "They're more concerned that the politician be of some use and not steal too much. But it never enters anyone's mind that such attitudes leave the door wide open for the rebirth of Stalinism. All people want is a piece of bread to keep from starving to death..."

Belarussian trade-union leader Nikolai Agarkov, one of the most active organizers of strikes and meetings of workers at the Minsk Auto Plant and miners from Soligorsk, noted that "perhaps the people are finally ready to support someone who is willing to stand against Lukashenko. They are hungry, the standard of living is shamefully low, nothing works properly. People gather at meetings, they speak freely. But the minute the President shows up everything changes: 'We're happy, Luk... everything's fine. Your policies are correct.' They're afraid of him, most likely. [...] Why? Because the opposition is weak, it's composed almost entirely of members of the creative intelligentsia. They drive the workers and farmers away with their arrogance. Lukashenko at least supports the people in word, if not in deed. If the opposition does not come up with some concrete actions, it will soon find itself playing the role of eternal opposition to Lukashenko's eternal presidency.

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